OCW+assignment-+Weather+(real+copy)

__ OUR CHANGING WORLD- ASSESSMENT TASK (WEATHER) __

Written by: Le-Suong Le Teacher: Mrs Coleman Due Date:17/September/2010 Subject: Our Changing World Topic for assignment: Weather

INTRODUCTION

By now you would have witnessed numerous stories based on “Global Warming” or “Climate Change.” Whether it’s from articles, the internet or just plain old television. We hear about the topic all the time, but what exactly is Global Warming? What causes it? Well basically, Global Warming is the average increase in global temperatures (although some regions experience cooler weather).

We humans have been burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas (methane gas) at an increasing rate. When these fossil fuels are burnt, they release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

As the Sun emits sunlight to the Earth’s surface, some of the sunlight is absorbed into the ground in order to keep the planet warm, whereas, the majority of sunlight is reflected back into the atmosphere. However, the excessive amount of greenhouse gases that linger within our atmosphere, absorb and trap the heat waves that are radiated from the ground. The gases act as a “blanket” and trap the heat waves, radiating back to the surface of Earth, thus, heating it up even more and producing negative impacts to humans. This is called the “Greenhouse effect.” How the greenhouse effect works The increase in greenhouse emissions is the primary cause of Global Warming. Global Warming then triggers Climate change. Over the past 100 years, the average air temperature on the Earth's surface has risen by just 1 degree Celsius. It may not seem like a big deal, but due to this 1 degree increase in global temperature, abnormalities of “Weather Patterns” have become more frequent as well as violent.

For further understanding on Weather Patterns affected by climate change, please read below.

WHAT TYPE OF CHANGE IS OCCURRING- EXTREME WEATHER Over the 20th century, the global mean temperature has risen by 0.4-0.8 degrees Celsius and is expected to increase. “E//ach of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before. At the time, the 1980s was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. The 2000s were warmer still”// -__//Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries, National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) July, 28, 2010//__

Sadly, by 2100, it is predicted the temperatures would be 1.4-5.8 degrees warmer than it is now. One of the effects of climate change is the increase in both frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. An increase in temperatures means, there is more interaction between the ocean and atmosphere, causing these weather extremities.

//"Weather records are being set all the time now. We’re in an era of unprecedented extreme weather events,”// McCarthy said.

//"In 30-50 years’ time, the Earth’s weather generating system will be entirely different,//” he predicted //__— Stephen Leah, Global Warming may spawn more super storms, Inter Press Service, September 20, 2004__//

Here are a few examples of what may come in the future, or, some that are already happening:
 * · Increase in hurricanes / cyclones / typhoons
 * · More droughts
 * - Longer duration of intense rain
 * · Heat waves (Heat waves in America-climate change to blame)

The brief table below shows the top five deadliest weather events between 1970-2002

In addition, a significant weather event that took place USA was the Hurricane Katrina that occurred in 2005
 * Rank || Victims || Date || Event || Country ||
 * 1 || 300,000 || 14.11.1970 || Storm & Flood || Bangladesh ||
 * 2 || 138,000 || 29.04.1991 || Tropical Cyclone Gorky || Bangladesh ||
 * 3 || 15,000 || 29.10.1999 || Cyclone 05B || India ||
 * 4 || 15,000 || 01.09.1978 || Flooding following monsoon || Northern India ||
 * 5 || 10,800 || 31.10.1971 || Flooding || India ||

WHERE AND WHEN THESE CHANGES OCCURRED This issue involving abnormal weather patterns/events is happening on a global scale. From hurricanes to heat waves, countries are experiencing unusual Weather events in comparison to the last 50 years.

“//There is abundant evidence of an unprecedented number of severe weather events in the past decade (1990s),"// (professor of biological oceanography at Harvard University, James) McCarthy says.


 * Hurricanes/ Typhoons/Tornadoes:**
 * In 2004, Brazil experienced its first ever hurricane in the South Atlantic
 * In 2006, China was hit with the strongest typhoon in 50 years (Typhoon Saomai). This disaster killed at least 436 people, flooded rice fields and knocked down power lines at speeds of 216km per hour.
 * In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused destruction to America; this weather event took the lives of over 1836 lives and was crowned one of the most deadly in history.
 * Western Samoa had suffered 3 violent cyclones in 4 years, during the late 1980s. Surprisingly, before these events, Western Samoa had only experienced 1 violent cyclone in the last 100 years.
 * Floods:**
 * Europe was hit with record floods in 2002
 * In 1999, Bangladesh suffered some of it's worst floods ever
 * In 1998, 4000 people died in a devastating flood that occurred in China
 * 2010 is the year Pakistan experienced its worst flood in 80 years, with a death toll of more than 1100.
 * North America suffered from floods as rainfall had become 25% more intense this century
 * Heat waves**
 * During the Midyear of 2010, Russia faced a record heatwave, which had taken the lives of approximately 15000 people, 7000 in Moscow alone. This event was said to be caused by Global Warming. //"From the moment of the foundation of our country, we can say, in the last period of 1,000 years, no similar heatwave has been observed neither by ourselves nor by our ancestors,"// said Alexander Frolov Image of Russia before and after (polluted air)
 * Europe- 2003
 * Australia- Adelaide 2010
 * Australia- News on Australia and it's heat wave
 * Rainfall**
 * Since 1900, rainfall has increased immensely over East America, North Europe, Parts of Asia and North- West Australia


 * Cold Weather**
 * England faces one of the coldest Winters in 100 years
 * Drought**
 * Yellowstone National Park, USA, experience forest fires during the northern summer as severe droughts took place.
 * Australia is a long sufferer of drought

**__Australia's rainfall deficiency rate__** Below is a map showing some areas in which extreme weather events have taken place within the last 50 years:

**__Unusual weather patterns occurring across the globe since the last 50 years__** These results show that the majority of extreme weather, be it drought or flood, are scattered along the Northern Hemisphere. Also showing that less disasters are occurring at the equator or Southern Hemisphere.

THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACTS INVOLVED

Weather extremities such as floods, droughts, storms or hurricanes are horrid and fatal. Lives are lost, business ruined, homes turn to rubble, ecosystems corrupted, environments are altered and an unforgettable memory is stained within your mind. Surprisingly, a few aspects in the world can benefit from these catastrophic events.


 * NEGATIVES:**

__//Droughts://__ · Increases forest fires. Large forest fires (500 acres) have risen from approximately 6 per year in 1970 to 21 per year in the early 21st Century. When extreme forest fires occur, they burn down an immense amount of trees, thus releasing a large amount of greenhouse gases. These fires also destroy trees that take up Carbon Dioxide. -Particularly in Australia, droughts are partially responsible for the disruption of crop growth, animal breeding and also threatens farming businesses. Thus declining in national economy and income, which may then lead to unemployment - In Australia, farmers are suffering depression as the drought intensifies, resulting in suicides. "//On average, one male Australian farmer is taking their lives every four days or so,"// says Tony Hobbs ( Australian Divisions of General Practice chairman). -Prices of fruits, vegetables and meat will increase significantly as demand is high and supply is low. //"We've had that experience in Australia, of course. We've had the tripling of the price of bananas from Cyclone Larry. We've had the drought raise lamb prices around 60 per cent."// -In 1988, Florida was affected by Wildfires, leaving the US with a loss of approximately $276 million in damage.

__//Heatwaves://__ · In 2003, the extreme heat struck across Europe, resulting in an astonishing death toll of 35 000. Forestry and Agriculture reached a loss of 15 billion dollars. · Warmer air is capable of holding more moisture, therefore, producing a wetter planet, as more evaporation is present. With a "wetter" planet, floodings will occur, causing damages to crops, homes and businesses, which finally may lead to unemployment and migration. · Increases the chance of food and water shortages- famine · Can affect air and water pollution, hence, affecting human health.

__//Flooding://__ · In the United Kingdom, huge numbers of bird species as well as wildlife were under threat due to flooding and erosion. This may alter the food chain · Floods are capable of damaging crops and cause erosions in soils. -Flooding in Pakistan has caused refugees to return back to Afghanistan as homes and businesses are destroyed. //"The river swallowed everything. We have no house no business, nothing to eat, nothing to wear,"// said Nizam Ali who just passed his 12th grade exams and was planning to pursue further studies in the nearby city of Peshawar. - In 1988, floods along the Yangtze River min China was responsible for the loss of US $30 billions dollars -Homes and businesses are ruined as floods have the ability to cause violent landslides. - Video-Negative impacts floods had on China

__//Extreme Rainfall://__ · Changes in rainfall are likely to increase the chances of crop failures, which means farmers would have to suffer from a low income or even unemployment


 * POSITIVES:**

__//Cold Weather://__ · Fewer deaths occur due to the exposure to the cold.

__//Heat waves//__ - Air conditioner related businesses benefit financially as many citizens are on an air conditioner frenzy during this extreme event - Although it is sad that some farmers have given up on life as droughts takes its toll, the bright side is that a higher demand for farmer will be needed, therefore, business opportunities will be available

HOW AND WHY THE IMPACTS OCCURRED

Extreme Weather events are frequently attacking the countries of Earth with unbelievable forces. We know that an increase in global temperatures has been the major factor towards these disasters, but what is the exact process in which these events are created and how does climate change affect these processes?


 * HURRICANES:**

Hurricanes/typhoons are formed over moist warm waters near the equator (Atlantic and Pacific Oceans). When moist air evaporates, it rises from the Earths surface until there is a huge amount of heated air, as this is taking place, the surrounding air forms a swirls. Once the moist air cools, it condenses into clouds, which is precisely what victims terrifyingly witness. Climate change has cause Earth's sea as well as land temperatures to increase over time. With the increase in sea temperatures, hurricanes are able to use the (more) heated air resulting in frequent and shockingly powerful hurricanes/ typhoons.

Here is a diagram showing how a hurricane if formed. __How a hurricane is formed__

This is a video of Hurricane Katrina which struck Louisiana and Alabama on August 29 2005, as a category 3. We are able to see starting to form over the Atlantic Ocean, then intensifying as it crosses over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. __A video of how a hurricane Katrina was formed__

//__**FLOODS:**__// A flood is an overflow of water that results in a submerged land, river bank, or lake. It is mostly caused by heavy rainfall. Due to Climate change, temperatures are rising at an alarming rate, this triggers an increase in evaporation (which means more moisture for precipitation). When the increased amount of evaporation is converted into rainfall, it releases more gushes of rain over land, thus causing floods to occur.

__//**Droughts:**//__ Like intense storms or hurricanes, droughts are too caused by the higher evaporation rates, leaving animals and crops to die as they cannot tolerate the conditions.

EVALUATION AND PREDICTION FOR THIS PROBLEM The change in Weather patterns, due to climate change is a serious issue for the physical and human environments in long term. As time passes, it is inevitable that global mean temperatures will continue to rise thus, consequently increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. With such travesty currently occurring at an alarming rate, homes, lives and businesses/ economy are facing an unavoidable destruction in the not-too-far future. More and more areas of the planet will be affected by heat waves, extreme rainfall and tropical storms if this change continues. //"By 2025, half the world's population will be living in areas that are at risk from storms and other weather extremes,"// the World Water Council said, with evidence gathered by U.N. and other experts.

Hurricanes/ Typhoons along with floods are likely to leave victims with the unlikely option of living in desirable conditions (no home, no business, and no food left). To make things worse, the economic costs for these events alone will be hard to bear considering that the majority of these catastrophes will occur in the poor countries of Africa and Asia.

Food will become scarce as crops will fail to grow in such conditions, lives will continue to be lost, diseases will be on the rise as the amount of contaminated water rises (from floods) and it is said that by 2025, increasing droughts will be responsible for 5 billion - or 2 out of every 3 people lacking clean water as well as millions more starving.

A minor positive aspect to this change is that air conditioning and fan businesses would significantly benefit in areas suffering from severe heat waves.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, science based information reveals that Climate change (increase in global temperatures) is in fact a major cause towards the recent unusual weather patterns, (and I too believe that the recent disasters are linked to the increase in global temperatures). Evidence shows that the rise in global temperatures have indeed been causing intense as well as frequent disasters in contrast to the last century. Since hurricanes/typhoons and floods are generated by the warmth of the Earth, the amount of these disasters have risen frighteningly since the 1970s (so too have droughts and heat waves). This however, is nothing in comparison for what the future holds, considering that greenhouse gases continue to trap the heat on Earth, eventually leading to a catastrophic pattern of weather in the future. Yes, citizens of Earth are starting to help reduce these greenhouse emissions; unfortunately, it is too late to stop any of the inevitable events-to-come.

BIBLIOGRAPHY CSIRO, “Our climate is Changing,” Last updated on 7th/December/2009, Used on September 4th []

Gutro, Rob, “What’s the difference between Weather and Climate,” 02.01.2005, Used on September 2nd []

Lindinger,Karin and Kunzemann, Thilo “What is Global Warming?” Last updated on July 22 2010, Used on September 5th []

Shah, Anup, “ Climate Change and Global Warming introduction“ Created on Monday, July 20, 1998, Used on September 5th []

Tompkins, Heather, “Climate change and extreme weather events: Is there a connection?” 3/2002, Used on September 4th []

"Our Changing World,” St Albans Secondary College Edition, pg 73,75, 77,79, used on September 5th, 6th and 8th.